Human rights activist and political commentator Kimutai Kirui has said the emerging political rivalry between Interior Cabinet Secretary Onesmus Kipchumba Murkomen and Uasin Gishu Senator Jackson Mandago could shape the future of Rift Valley politics once President William Ruto completes his second and final constitutional term.

Speaking in a political analysis titled "CS Interior Hon Onesmus Murkomen vs Senator Jackson Mandago: State Power, Grassroots Legitimacy, and the Battle for the Rift Valley Succession," Kirui argued that history has repeatedly shown that dominant political movements rarely collapse because of external opposition, but instead weaken from internal rivalries, succession battles and personal ambition.

According to Kirui, the contest to inherit President Ruto's political influence has already begun, with Murkomen and Kapseret MP Oscar Kipchumba Sudi emerging as key figures seeking to shape the next chapter of Rift Valley politics.

He claimed that Murkomen views himself as the natural successor to the region's leadership and has increasingly positioned himself at the centre of political decision-making in the North Rift. Kirui further alleged that Murkomen and his allies are often perceived as operating with a sense of political entitlement, portraying themselves as the leaders best placed to determine the region's future political direction.

The activist argued that this perception has contributed to growing political divisions, with leaders who do not align with Murkomen's camp allegedly being branded supporters of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, political sellouts or individuals opposed to President Ruto's re-election.

Kirui maintained that while Murkomen enjoys the influence that comes with holding a powerful Cabinet position, Senator Jackson Mandago continues to command significant grassroots support, particularly in Uasin Gishu County and across parts of the Rift Valley.

He described Mandago as a patient, consultative and experienced politician whose influence has been built over many years through direct engagement with residents, unlike leaders who rely primarily on positions in government.

According to Kirui, politics is ultimately driven by public perception, and leadership is sustained not merely by authority or access to state power but by the confidence and trust of the electorate.

He argued that the biggest political test for Murkomen will not be his ability to exercise influence from within government but whether he can successfully earn the confidence of ordinary wananchi while competing against seasoned grassroots politicians such as Mandago.

Kirui also claimed that Murkomen's critics accuse him of attempting to shape political leadership across several Rift Valley counties by supporting leaders considered politically loyal to him rather than those with strong independent support bases.

Among the leaders frequently mentioned in the succession debate, he cited Uasin Gishu Governor Jonathan Bii Chelilim, Soy MP David Kiplagat Kiborek, Moiben MP Phyllis Chemutai Bartoo, and other elected leaders whom critics allege have remained closely aligned with the Interior Cabinet Secretary.

The activist said the future political direction of Uasin Gishu County remains particularly significant because Eldoret has historically served as the political and economic capital of the North Rift. He argued that whoever commands political influence in Uasin Gishu is likely to enjoy broader influence across the larger Kalenjin voting bloc.

Kirui maintained that Senator Mandago has emerged as Murkomen's strongest political competitor in the battle to shape the region's post-2027 leadership, saying the senator's grassroots networks continue to make him a formidable force.

He further observed that while President Ruto may eventually endorse leaders he believes are capable of advancing his political legacy, democratic succession cannot be dictated through presidential preference alone.

Drawing comparisons with previous presidential transitions, Kirui noted that political endorsements by former Presidents Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta did not ultimately determine who succeeded them, arguing that Kenyan voters have consistently exercised independent judgment at the ballot.

The activist warned that any succession strategy founded on political engineering, state influence or perceived proximity to presidential power risks dividing the Rift Valley and weakening its collective political voice.

He concluded that lasting political leadership can only be achieved through credibility, performance and grassroots legitimacy, insisting that the ultimate decision on who leads the region after President Ruto will rest with the electorate rather than political elites.

Kirui's remarks come amid growing political realignments within the Kenya Kwanza coalition and increasing debate over who will emerge as the most influential political figure in the Rift Valley after the 2027 General Election.