ODM on the Brink: Party Torn Between Loyalists and Realigners as 2027 Approaches

By Mwalimu Amunga Akhanyalabandu

As Kenya moves steadily toward the 2027 General Election, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) — long the bedrock of opposition politics — is facing an internal crisis that threatens its very identity. Behind the familiar orange banners and public displays of unity, a deep schism has emerged, pitting two rival factions against each other in a battle for the soul of the party — and the political future of Raila Odinga.

At the center of the turmoil is a sensitive, high-stakes question: Should Raila Odinga, ODM’s founder and five-time presidential contender, run again in 2027? Or should the party transition to a new leadership era — one that some allege is being engineered by forces aligned with President William Ruto?

Faction One: The Covert Realigners – Pro-Ruto, Anti-Raila

Operating under the radar yet wielding considerable influence, this faction seeks to gradually shift ODM closer to the Ruto administration. Their objective is to push for a Raila exit and realign the party with the State — a move they argue is necessary for political survival in a changing Kenya.

Key operatives include:

• Peter Kaluma (MP, Homa Bay): Spearheading legal arguments for party succession.

• Gladys Wanga (Governor, Homa Bay): Quietly facilitating behind-the-scenes negotiations with government figures.

• George Aladwa (MP, Makadara): A mobilizer and Nairobi power broker.

• Opiyo Wandayi (Minority Leader): Publicly loyal to Raila, but rumored to be positioning for a pro-government shift.

• John Mbadi: Formerly a fierce Raila defender, now working within Ruto’s economic advisory circle.

• Wycliffe Oparanya: A former Raila heir-apparent now playing mediator between ODM and State House.

• Robert Alai (Nairobi MCA): The faction’s vocal online foot soldier.

The group is believed to be coordinated and financed by Dr. Raymond Omollo, the Principal Secretary for Internal Security, a technocrat from Raila’s Nyanza stronghold. His involvement is viewed by many as a calculated effort to dismantle opposition power structures from within.

While publicly speaking of “modernizing” the party, critics say the real agenda is clear: stop Raila from running in 2027 and remake ODM into a vehicle for political accommodation with the Ruto regime.

Faction Two: The Resistance Bloc – Pro-Raila, Anti-Ruto

In stark contrast stands a determined and vocal group of ODM loyalists who are vowing to preserve the party’s identity as a champion of opposition politics. This faction maintains that Raila Odinga must either remain at the helm or oversee a transition free from government interference.

Among its key defenders:

• Edwin Sifuna (Nairobi Senator): ODM’s Secretary-General and emerging national voice.

• Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga Senator): Loyalist and grassroots mobilizer.

• James Orengo (Siaya Governor): ODM’s legal strategist and longtime Raila confidant.

• Abdulswamad Nassir (Mombasa Governor): A coastal leader quietly resisting state pressure.

• Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu Governor): Party elder and intellectual force.

• Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega Governor): Championing ODM values in Western Kenya.

This wing of the party draws strength from the grassroots, where Raila’s support remains robust. They argue that attempts to cozy up to Ruto are a betrayal of ODM’s legacy and of the millions of Kenyans who have stood with the party through its opposition struggles.

Public Fallout and Strategic Silence

The growing divide has spilled into public view in recent months, marked by conflicting press statements, coordinated social media attacks, and strategic leaks. ODM, once renowned for its discipline, now appears fractured — and without clear direction.

Yet at the center of it all is Raila Odinga himself, silent and enigmatic. Insiders say he is weighing his options carefully, neither confirming nor denying a 2027 bid. For now, he remains the only figure capable of holding the party together — or triggering its unraveling.

What’s at Stake

As the political drama unfolds, the future of ODM — and by extension, Kenya’s opposition politics — hangs in the balance. Will the party remain a force of resistance, or will it become a cog in the wheel of state power? Can it survive without Raila at the helm, or will internal betrayal erode its foundation?

One thing is clear: ODM is standing at a historic crossroads. And the choices its leaders make in the months ahead will not only determine the fate of the party — but may also reshape the country’s political landscape for years to come.